Free PDF Ahead of the Curve: A Commonsense Guide to Forecasting Business and Market Cycles, by Joseph H. Ellis
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Ahead of the Curve: A Commonsense Guide to Forecasting Business and Market Cycles, by Joseph H. Ellis
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Economic and stock market cycles affect companies in every industry. Unfortunately, a confusing array of anecdotal and conflicting indicators often renders it impossible for managers and investors to see where the economy is heading in time to take corrective action. Now, a 35-year Wall Street veteran unveils a new forecasting method to help managers and investors understand and predict the economic cycles that control their businesses and financial fates. In Ahead of the Curve, Joseph H. Ellis argues that the problem with current forecasting models lies not in the data, but rather in the lack of a clear framework for putting the data in context and reading it correctly. The book explains critical economic indicators in nontechnical language, identifies and documents the recurring cause-and-effect relationships that consistently predict turning points in the economy, and provides the tools managers and investors need to position themselves ahead of cyclical upturns and downturns. Economic events are not as random and unpredictable as they seem. This book helps readers recognize and react to signs of change that their rivals don't see—and win a sizeable competitive advantage. Joseph H. Ellis was a partner at Goldman Sachs and was ranked for 18 consecutive years by Institutional Investor magazine as Wall Street's No.1 retail industry analyst.
- Sales Rank: #479917 in Books
- Brand: Brand: Harvard Business Review Press
- Published on: 2005-10-11
- Original language: English
- Number of items: 1
- Dimensions: 9.75" h x 6.50" w x 1.50" l, 1.40 pounds
- Binding: Hardcover
- 256 pages
- Used Book in Good Condition
Review
"Bewitched, bothered and befuddled by the daily drizzle of economic data? Joseph H. Ellis has a cure." -- Bloomberg News
"The recession obsession is a terrible mistake...We need to find a way to talk about slowing rates of growth." -- New York Times
About the Author
Joseph H. Ellis was a partner of Goldman Sachs and was ranked for eighteen consecutive years by Institutional Investor magazine as Wall Street's #1 retail-industry analyst.
Most helpful customer reviews
1 of 1 people found the following review helpful.
Sometimes the obvious is worth repeating
By K. Ferrio
Mr. Ellis' professional track-record is virtually universally recognized as unassailable. Consistency means everything in investing, and as America's economy of consumption seems prepared to power dive into terrain, Ellis' remarks will be seem either obvious or alarming. After all, the title tells us that it's 'common sense.' And it really is.
If you want drama, watch CNBC. If you want reason, read this book. The entire book is built on painfully obvious observations, so those seeking analytical rigor or "an edge" will be left wanting. But for patient people, this book offers an opportunity to avoid very predictable mistakes at every turn in the business cycle.
Ellis' advice to wake up and get over the "recession obsession" is particularly timely (again) at the end of 2007. As the markets reprice or just write-down the subprime meltdown by tens of billions at a whack, and as we watch consumer spending remain bewilderingly robust while year-over-year increases in credit card delinquency rates hit double digits and unit energy prices reach for records, the old-timers know *exactly* where this is going. So Ellis tells us: don't dwell on recession; accept that it will be recognized (late, by definition) and position yourself (now!) for the recovery.
Ellis' style is very readable, not always persuasive on the details (again, the lack of rigor) and mostly obvious. But if you didn't get it the first time around, you need to buy this book. Finally, the companion website -- which is free -- will be of interest to (and a timesaver for) many armchair investors.
3 of 3 people found the following review helpful.
This book is definitely worth reading.
By Alex M.
The author's approach toward economic data is very refreshing, in that he works quite hard at finding data that is predictive of stock market declines. Just the chapter on the "recession obsession", and why its bad for you makes the whole book worthwhile. It really put a lot of economic numbers in perspective, and made me realize it was actually possible to use economic numbers to your advantage.
I would also add that his writing style is very easy to follow. While it definitely helps if you have some background in economics, it is really not necessary.
4 of 5 people found the following review helpful.
ABSOLUTELY INEFFECTUAL
By William A. Kruseman
Interesting observations based on the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) indicator from the Commerce Department and the chain effect between real average hourly wages, real consumer spending, real corporate profits, industrial production and services and real capital spending...
As a forecasting tool it is totally ineffectual... Mr. Ellis does not even incorporate the S&P500 movement in any of his charts; therefore, he does not compare and prove the implied correlation...
Investors are constantly attempting to anticipate the market's next move based on the latest data on dozens of economic indicators that are published on a weekly basis... There is too much financial information and a lot of it contradicts each other... You will not predict the inmediate direction of the stock market by comparing supposed past correlations between economic indicators and the movement of the S&P500 because every economic cycle is shaped by a different set of circumstances... The alleged correlations DO NOT play out and are full of inconsistencies...
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